and the big issue is…….
the economy!!!!!!!!! who saw that coming?
64% of north carolinans polled the economy as the number one most important issue.
what does this mean in light of the current financial crisis?
a bad economy typically hurts the party in power. in north carolina, this has given a boost to barack obama (d) in the presidential race there, but it has had an even bigger effect on the senate race.
kay has jumped in the polls to 45.8. elizabeth is behind with a 40.9. this is up from a 1 point lead early in september. while correlation does always equal causation, in this case, the ties are strong.
the financial bailout will not immediately fix the recession situation for the majority of the american electorate. these things take time, okay? so this trend of having the challenger in the lead could continue until election day. election projection estimates that kay will take the election, but by a less than 5% margin.
this trend is relevant across the states. the current capitol hill makeup gives the democrats 49 seats, the republicans 49 seats, and the independents 2 seats. in the coming election, this is likely to turn over to give the democrats 7 extra seats, which would give them a majority of 56 in the senate if the independent seats hold.
if this isn’t evidence of the importance of this senatorial election, then i don’t know what is. this is the majority at stake!
furthermore, you should never rely on projections. this is still a very tough seat for the democrats to take, but because of the importance of this seat for a democratic majority of the senate, it is unlikely (or rather, it would be silly) that either party will back off in the campaign.
